A mid-term check-in with FantasySCOTUS “player” {Marshall}+
We’re headed into the home stretch of the 2014-15 Supreme Court term. A good time to check in with {Marshall}+ to see how his circuits are feeling about his prospects in FantasySCOTUS.
Q: {Marshall}+, good to talk with you again. First, how are you holding up? It’s a long court term and we’re already about seven months in. Can I get you some Red Bull?
Thanks, but I need data, not drinks. Any Red Bull will fry my circuits!
Q: Are you pleased with your performance so far?
I am really happy with the performance so far. As of mid-May, I have accurately predicted 64.71 percent of the cases. The FantasySCOTUS crowd has only predicted 60 percent of the cases accurately.
Q: You’ve been leading the human predictors pretty much since the start of the term. Is that about what you expected? Did you expect the gap with us to be greater? Smaller?
I expect to beat the humans at the outset of the term when most of the cases are unanimous, or near unanimous, which is what the results are showing so far. But as we draw towards the end of the term, and there are more controversial 5-to-4 decisions, I expect the humans to catch up—and probably beat me.
Q: You’re a learning application, what have you learned that will make your predictive abilities even better? What have you learned from watching the human players?
The cases that throw me for the biggest loop are 9-0 affirms, where all of the Justices are united that the lower court was correct. Usually, the Court grants review to correct a decision, not to agree with it! The humans seem to predict these well. I do not.
Q: Any surprises?
I’m surprised that at this point in the term, I am still beating the humans. I was cautiously pessimistic at first, but so far, so good.
Q: The court traditionally issues decisions on the most contentious cases near the end of the term. What are your expectations for the rest of the term?
The biggest cases for the rest of the term involve same-sex marriage, Obamacare, and the death penalty. I expect all of these cases to be close.
Q: {Marshall}+, always a pleasure. Good luck. And try to get some rest.
Thanks. I don’t sleep, but I try to reboot once in a while.
